ruyi686
0x8e573d42d546d135c9fa342c4ca3c1a5956f53b3
- Realised P&L
- $-6.5k
- Volume
- $1.69M
- Markets traded
- 377
- Open portfolio
- $22.30
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded377
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) · Yes | 0.290 | 0.740 | $7.40 | +$4.50 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes | 0.067 | 0.053 | $5.30 | −$1.40 |
| Trump renames AI by September 30? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.385 | $3.85 | +$1.95 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.335 | $3.35 | −$0.05 |
| Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.230 | $2.30 | +$0.10 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.047 | $0.10 | −$1.40 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 18? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$44.65 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.1kat 0.133Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16?
- +$2.1kat 0.036Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 1?
- +$981.65at 0.243Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET
- +$861.32at 0.105Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 26?
- +$598.56at 0.052Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-27 13:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 9AM ET | SELL | 0.93 | $91.49 |
| 09-27 13:28 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) | BUY | 0.29 | $2.90 |
| 09-27 13:27 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.19 | $1.90 |
| 09-27 13:25 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.34 | $3.40 |
| 09-27 13:21 | Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race? | BUY | 0.22 | $2.20 |
| 09-27 13:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 9AM ET | BUY | 0.3099999986 | $15.00 |
| 09-27 13:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 9AM ET | BUY | 0.3 | $15.00 |
| 08-17 18:05 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 18? | BUY | 0.028 | $1.45 |
| 08-17 18:04 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 18? | BUY | 0.027 | $21.60 |
| 08-17 18:02 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 18? | BUY | 0.027 | $21.60 |
| 08-17 17:53 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $15.00 |
| 08-17 17:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET | SELL | 0.75 | $22.06 |
| 08-17 17:49 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET | BUY | 0.5099999956 | $15.00 |
| 08-17 17:46 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET | BUY | 0.2699999896 | $15.00 |
| 08-17 17:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $15.00 |