moscow-professor
0x8e4e228614bb57a07308b6bea46cd572234ef6d9
- Realised P&L
- $5.2k
- Volume
- $163.8k
- Markets traded
- 58
- Open portfolio
- $23.3k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded58
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample49 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.945 | $11.3k | −$60.00 |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.700 | 0.735 | $6.6k | +$315.00 |
| Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.955 | $3.0k | +$15.95 |
| Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026? · No | 0.850 | 0.845 | $1.3k | −$7.48 |
| Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.930 | 0.925 | $1.0k | −$5.66 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei · Yes | 0.710 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$851.96 |
| Maduro out by March 31, 2026? · No | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$244.00 |
| Maduro out by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$110.00 |
| Maduro out by January 31, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$546.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.5kat 0.850Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?
- +$762.00at 0.758Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$542.32at 0.945Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?
- +$540.00at 0.940Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?
- +$406.00at 0.971Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 17:30 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $6.3k |
| 11-01 17:30 | Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $3.0k |
| 11-01 17:29 | Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $1.1k |
| 11-01 17:29 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.95 | $11.4k |
| 11-01 17:28 | Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $1.3k |
| 08-03 13:04 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August? | BUY | 0.9409917772 | $9.3k |
| 07-18 14:13 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July? | BUY | 0.955 | $442.72 |
| 07-18 14:13 | Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July? | BUY | 0.977 | $505.11 |
| 07-18 14:11 | Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? | SELL | 0.9457465552 | $443.38 |
| 07-18 14:10 | Will there be between 5 and 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $1.3k |
| 07-18 14:10 | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | SELL | 0.97624422 | $2.9k |
| 04-30 17:55 | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.3k |
| 04-04 18:45 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? | BUY | 0.968 | $5.1k |
| 03-24 00:24 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? | BUY | 0.971 | $2.9k |
| 03-24 00:23 | Netanyahu out by March 31? | BUY | 0.9885962633 | $3.0k |