balidani
0x8e48c981887f3cc22da2ad19082adf5c7b06fc4d
- Realised P&L
- $9.14
- Volume
- $9.8k
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $20.42
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? · Yes | 0.208 | 0.085 | $20.42 | −$29.58 |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.592 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$102.00 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.097 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$34.37at 0.583Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET
- +$25.95at 0.658Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- +$22.60at 0.558Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
- +$21.88at 0.425Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
- +$18.01at 0.511Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-22 17:00 | Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? | BUY | 0.2299999933 | $25.00 |
| 07-15 14:05 | Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? | BUY | 0.1899999944 | $25.00 |
| 07-12 21:10 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.202 | $11.70 |
| 07-12 21:10 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.388 | $23.37 |
| 07-12 20:14 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.214 | $19.11 |
| 07-08 07:48 | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.022 | $22.00 |
| 06-14 08:21 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.509999998 | $59.00 |
| 06-07 20:09 | Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.01 | $10.00 |
| 06-07 20:09 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0969999917 | $10.00 |
| 06-02 18:07 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999965 | $43.00 |
| 06-01 07:29 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.011 | $8.46 |
| 06-01 07:28 | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.01 | $7.69 |
| 05-31 07:19 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? | BUY | 0.85 | $68.00 |
| 04-26 20:52 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999746 | $19.00 |
| 04-15 16:25 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.013 | $10.00 |