RFK-Jr
0x8e414f15f9195e6f6a1c223e2502afe2a0c85932
- Realised P&L
- $-23.2k
- Volume
- $292.5k
- Markets traded
- 232
- Open portfolio
- $7.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded232
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.484 | 0.425 | $5.5k | −$760.53 |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.471 | 0.410 | $1.9k | −$281.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.6kat 0.404Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
- +$1.9kat 0.433Will SpaceX (SPCX) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$1.7kat 0.755UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)
- +$1.3kat 0.431Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffs
- +$1.2kat 0.633Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-07 09:10 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $800.00 |
| 09-07 09:08 | Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.62 | $1.4k |
| 09-05 21:25 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $650.00 |
| 09-05 21:24 | Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.64 | $3.20 |
| 09-05 21:23 | Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.63 | $355.95 |
| 09-05 21:23 | Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.64 | $323.20 |
| 09-05 21:20 | Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $11.54 |
| 08-24 23:37 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $500.00 |
| 08-24 22:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET | BUY | 0.96 | $121.53 |
| 08-24 17:31 | Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? | SELL | 0.00221 | $0.22 |
| 08-24 17:30 | Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)? | SELL | 0.755 | $226.50 |
| 08-24 17:09 | Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.78 | $117.00 |
| 08-24 17:09 | Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.77 | $115.50 |
| 08-24 04:52 | Will Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) beat quarterly earnings? | SELL | 0.25 | $6.97 |
| 08-24 04:50 | Will Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) beat quarterly earnings? | SELL | 0.31 | $125.64 |