PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x8e3bda8a4b783cef15254b171a030ad0a47cbeb8

Realised P&L
$-5.35
Volume
$679.76
Markets traded
14
Open portfolio
$0.54

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded14
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration48.0% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample13 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)23.1%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Elon register any party before 2027? · Yes0.1960.105$0.54$0.46

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
03-25 16:41Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?BUY0.6699998437$3.00
03-25 16:36Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?BUY0.0310000002$1.29
03-25 16:31Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?BUY0.34999993$2.00
03-22 13:27Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (March 29)BUY0.17$1.19
03-22 13:26Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? (March 29)BUY0.2799998432$1.00
03-22 13:26Will Trump say "Regime Change" this week? (March 29)BUY0.2699998542$1.00
03-22 13:25Will Trump say "Egg" this week? (March 29)BUY0.3699998631$1.00
03-22 13:23Will Elon register any party before 2027?BUY0.1959998738$1.00
03-22 13:19Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?BUY0.0140000001$1.00
03-13 19:52Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?BUY0.52$1.00
03-13 19:16Will Trump be impeached by June 30?BUY0.0529999513$1.00
03-13 18:45Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?BUY0.5799997332$2.00
03-13 18:43Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?BUY0.002$1.00
03-13 18:41France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?BUY0.0979999177$1.00