0x8e3bda8a4b783cef15254b171a030ad0a47cbeb8
- Realised P&L
- $-5.35
- Volume
- $679.76
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $0.54
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration48.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)23.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon register any party before 2027? · Yes | 0.196 | 0.105 | $0.54 | −$0.46 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.70at 0.270Will Trump say "Regime Change" this week? (March 29)
- +$1.48at 0.670Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
- +$1.45at 0.580Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
- +$-0.04at 0.520Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
- +$-1.00at 0.053Will Trump be impeached by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-25 16:41 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY | 0.6699998437 | $3.00 |
| 03-25 16:36 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.0310000002 | $1.29 |
| 03-25 16:31 | Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.34999993 | $2.00 |
| 03-22 13:27 | Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (March 29) | BUY | 0.17 | $1.19 |
| 03-22 13:26 | Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? (March 29) | BUY | 0.2799998432 | $1.00 |
| 03-22 13:26 | Will Trump say "Regime Change" this week? (March 29) | BUY | 0.2699998542 | $1.00 |
| 03-22 13:25 | Will Trump say "Egg" this week? (March 29) | BUY | 0.3699998631 | $1.00 |
| 03-22 13:23 | Will Elon register any party before 2027? | BUY | 0.1959998738 | $1.00 |
| 03-22 13:19 | Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | BUY | 0.0140000001 | $1.00 |
| 03-13 19:52 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.52 | $1.00 |
| 03-13 19:16 | Will Trump be impeached by June 30? | BUY | 0.0529999513 | $1.00 |
| 03-13 18:45 | Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.5799997332 | $2.00 |
| 03-13 18:43 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 03-13 18:41 | France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.0979999177 | $1.00 |