0x8E1aa44F86ff13214fbD292a50083F05d242E252-1772457180212
0x8e1aa44f86ff13214fbd292a50083f05d242e252
- Realised P&L
- $-1.4k
- Volume
- $66.8k
- Markets traded
- 395
- Open portfolio
- $6.86
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded395
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.026 | $2.60 | −$2.40 |
| Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.015 | $2.35 | −$2.65 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.014 | $1.75 | −$3.25 |
| Will Petr Yan fight Deiveson Figueiredo next? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.001 | $0.15 | −$4.85 |
| Will Petr Yan fight Ricky Simón next? · Yes | 0.218 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$4.99 |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? · No | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$111.29at 0.098Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?
- +$88.68at 0.110JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
- +$57.50at 0.545XRP Up or Down - March 20, 3PM ET
- +$36.06at 0.237Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1PM ET
- +$35.54at 0.701Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-07 17:59 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | SELL | 0.937 | $124.29 |
| 07-07 17:49 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | SELL | 0.503 | $7.25 |
| 07-07 17:43 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | BUY | 0.0979999934 | $13.00 |
| 06-21 03:06 | Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? | BUY | 0.1099999956 | $20.00 |
| 06-21 00:46 | Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | BUY | 0.8099999931 | $20.00 |
| 06-21 00:26 | Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? | BUY | 0.7799999719 | $20.00 |
| 06-20 21:45 | Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? | BUY | 0.4 | $20.00 |
| 06-20 20:19 | Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? | SELL | 0.23 | $21.90 |
| 06-20 20:18 | Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | BUY | 0.3399999912 | $20.00 |
| 06-20 19:01 | Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | SELL | 0.999 | $43.06 |
| 06-20 16:02 | Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? | BUY | 0.15 | $11.10 |
| 06-20 16:02 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | BUY | 0.3499999895 | $20.00 |
| 06-20 15:58 | Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | BUY | 0.579999994 | $25.00 |
| 06-20 15:37 | Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? | BUY | 0.2099999922 | $20.00 |
| 06-20 15:37 | Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? | BUY | 0.149999994 | $20.00 |