whatifiamright
0x8de932bf06d9eec6b65ca4dd6f6b852d73543113
- Realised P&L
- $-683.35
- Volume
- $14.0k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $358.59
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample1 position
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.199 | 0.036 | $358.59 | −$1.6k |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? · Yes | 0.234 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$497.80 |
| Will US annual inflation be 2.8% in December? · Yes | 0.315 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$83.12 |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? · Yes | 0.309 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$60.40 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? · No | 0.031 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.00 |
| Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2024? · Yes | 0.257 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$41.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.44at 0.583Israel strikes Iran before 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 09:58 | Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0496453901 | $7.00 |
| 10-29 07:38 | Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.039 | $0.23 |
| 06-16 18:55 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0309999967 | $9.00 |
| 03-13 07:54 | Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $17.55 |
| 10-18 09:36 | Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $7.60 |
| 09-08 06:05 | Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $1.10 |
| 09-07 09:51 | Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $3.08 |
| 09-06 19:30 | Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $1.15 |
| 09-05 19:18 | Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $1.15 |
| 09-05 05:59 | Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $1.10 |
| 09-04 12:28 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | BUY | 0.2 | $280.00 |
| 09-04 09:49 | Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $1.10 |
| 09-04 05:59 | Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $2.20 |
| 09-03 14:00 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | BUY | 0.21 | $16.80 |
| 09-03 07:10 | Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $1.10 |