0x8De51fA1e2b768d4eF57376564284C8753b484D7-1765907608565
0x8de51fa1e2b768d4ef57376564284c8753b484d7
- Realised P&L
- $-1.6k
- Volume
- $49.7k
- Markets traded
- 57
- Open portfolio
- $505.57
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded57
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.635 | $317.50 | +$67.50 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · No | 0.953 | 0.960 | $168.87 | +$1.14 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.955 | $19.20 | +$2.51 |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 10? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$132.37 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$172.97at 0.500Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- +$72.01at 0.899Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?
- +$58.26at 0.379Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?
- +$49.40at 0.500Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?
- +$42.39at 0.077Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 04:29 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.953 | $4.76 |
| 09-06 02:09 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $16.68 |
| 09-04 17:45 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15? | SELL | 0.19 | $42.18 |
| 09-04 17:45 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30? | SELL | 0.26 | $13.00 |
| 09-04 04:39 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 10? | BUY | 0.011 | $82.35 |
| 09-04 04:39 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | SELL | 0.94 | $426.54 |
| 09-04 04:39 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | SELL | 0.941 | $56.46 |
| 09-03 12:12 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 10? | BUY | 0.071 | $7.10 |
| 09-03 12:08 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 10? | BUY | 0.07 | $14.00 |
| 09-03 12:08 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 10? | BUY | 0.069 | $3.45 |
| 09-03 12:07 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 10? | BUY | 0.069 | $16.21 |
| 09-03 12:07 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 10? | BUY | 0.0665 | $2.66 |
| 09-03 12:07 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 10? | BUY | 0.06 | $5.31 |
| 09-03 12:04 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 9? | BUY | 0.0095177128 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 12:00 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 10? | BUY | 0.059 | $1.30 |