ArnalWeather
0x8de1ada629585a5fde78aae39b38337a60b9664f
- Realised P&L
- $-234.62
- Volume
- $6.9k
- Markets traded
- 722
- Open portfolio
- $101.45
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded722
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration5.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.16at 0.180Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on September 30?
- +$15.00at 0.250Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on October 1?
- +$11.93at 0.716Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on September 17?
- +$11.29at 0.690Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on September 15?
- +$10.79at 0.320Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on September 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 08:44 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 10? | BUY | 0.44 | $5.00 |
| 10-08 07:57 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.31 | $4.56 |
| 10-07 08:22 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on October 7? | BUY | 0.460403071 | $4.80 |
| 10-06 08:00 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 6? | BUY | 0.52 | $5.00 |
| 10-03 06:41 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on October 3? | BUY | 0.42 | $4.83 |
| 10-02 08:50 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on October 2? | BUY | 0.29 | $2.90 |
| 10-01 08:17 | Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 1? | BUY | 0.3025980755 | $4.09 |
| 09-30 08:49 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on September 30? | BUY | 0.2 | $5.13 |
| 09-25 08:13 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on September 25? | BUY | 0.4 | $4.99 |
| 09-23 08:23 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on September 23? | BUY | 0.41 | $2.05 |
| 09-23 08:23 | Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on September 23? | BUY | 0.14 | $4.34 |
| 09-23 08:23 | Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on September 23? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.03 |
| 09-20 07:22 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.84 | $8.85 |
| 09-20 07:22 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.31 | $2.24 |
| 09-19 07:27 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on September 19? | BUY | 0.94 | $9.95 |