Oliviaq
0x8dd3f509ddd1c3b74653cb44e53de4c620a0e63e
- Realised P&L
- $-130.18
- Volume
- $22.5k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $443.55
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration74.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.810 | 0.875 | $245.00 | +$18.20 |
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.095 | $198.55 | −$177.65 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$62.59at 0.053Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$16.20at 0.734Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$3.66at 0.890Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.60at 0.888Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$0.00at 0.850U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-23 12:08 | Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? | BUY | 0.18 | $57.78 |
| 07-23 11:57 | Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? | BUY | 0.18 | $48.06 |
| 07-23 11:03 | Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? | BUY | 0.18 | $59.94 |
| 07-23 09:56 | Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? | BUY | 0.18 | $55.98 |
| 07-23 08:37 | Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? | BUY | 0.18 | $51.48 |
| 07-23 08:31 | Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? | BUY | 0.18 | $48.60 |
| 07-23 07:52 | Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? | BUY | 0.18 | $54.36 |
| 06-24 09:48 | U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? | SELL | 0.85 | $66.98 |
| 06-05 03:44 | U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? | BUY | 0.85 | $424.15 |
| 05-29 03:22 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.059 | $177.29 |
| 05-29 03:19 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $2.46 |
| 05-24 06:46 | Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9 | $329.40 |
| 05-22 06:45 | Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $325.74 |
| 04-02 01:40 | Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.89 | $712.00 |
| 03-25 11:04 | Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.888 | $705.96 |