legion
0x8dbde0d4836f410d50f431d3a966d33b340abed4
- Realised P&L
- $12.00
- Volume
- $387.86
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $131.21
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration86.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster explode? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.750 | $60.81 | +$0.81 |
| Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster? · No | 0.650 | 0.595 | $36.62 | −$3.38 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No | 0.940 | 0.935 | $33.78 | −$0.18 |
| Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? · No | 0.308 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.14 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$34.11at 0.604Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.41at 0.680Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$1.29at 0.590Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$0.62at 0.850Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?
- +$0.60at 0.770UFC Fight Night: Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 22:01 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.9399999889 | $33.96 |
| 09-29 21:58 | Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster? | BUY | 0.6499999951 | $40.00 |
| 09-29 21:57 | Will the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster explode? | BUY | 0.7399999975 | $60.00 |
| 07-19 17:46 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.5919999984 | $50.00 |
| 07-18 09:15 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.5919998248 | $1.00 |
| 05-06 21:50 | Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? | BUY | 0.3079999586 | $4.14 |
| 01-31 19:32 | Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? | BUY | 0.8499998189 | $3.52 |
| 11-26 18:50 | Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? | BUY | 0.9809999974 | $3.45 |
| 11-06 03:54 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.94 | $3.45 |
| 08-16 16:39 | Du Plessis vs. Adesanya | BUY | 0.5199998514 | $0.98 |
| 08-16 15:57 | Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl? | BUY | 0.379999962 | $3.00 |
| 08-03 14:09 | UFC Fight Night: Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Chiesa | BUY | 0.1899998784 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 14:09 | UFC Fight Night: Shara Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk | BUY | 0.719999856 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 14:09 | UFC Fight Night: Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 14:09 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season? | SELL | 0.81 | $3.99 |