rayfound
0x8dbc6da0c3a1e1156d29076e305e194fd98a766c
- Realised P&L
- $-29.04
- Volume
- $7.0k
- Markets traded
- 426
- Open portfolio
- $6.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded426
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.73at 0.535Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 29?
- +$6.79at 0.106Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on September 10?
- +$5.97at 0.204Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on September 11?
- +$5.85at 0.220Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on September 11?
- +$4.42at 0.115Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 13?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 04:01 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on September 19? | SELL | 0.49 | $2.45 |
| 09-19 04:01 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on September 19? | SELL | 0.33 | $1.03 |
| 09-19 04:01 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on September 19? | SELL | 0.45 | $0.45 |
| 09-19 03:08 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 03:05 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on September 19? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.50 |
| 09-18 18:44 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.13 | $0.65 |
| 09-18 12:35 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.08 | $0.40 |
| 09-18 08:28 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on September 18? | SELL | 0.99 | $1.76 |
| 09-18 07:46 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.19 | $0.95 |
| 09-18 05:41 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 05:40 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on September 18? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.10 |
| 09-18 05:00 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on September 18? | SELL | 0.12 | $0.60 |
| 09-17 23:54 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on September 18? | SELL | 0.16 | $0.80 |
| 09-17 23:47 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on September 19? | SELL | 0.26 | $1.30 |
| 09-17 07:42 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on September 17? | SELL | 0.98 | $2.08 |