rouxshan
0x8db507c4e69a99eaa8cc18f253b2e20dac9e3c8b
- Realised P&L
- $-279.34
- Volume
- $177.7k
- Markets traded
- 102
- Open portfolio
- $907.88
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded102
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration76.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration96.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.685 | $871.84 | +$121.37 |
| Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? · No | 0.148 | 0.280 | $31.59 | +$14.87 |
| Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.890 | $4.45 | +$0.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.6kat 0.331Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by September 30?
- +$147.65at 0.726Will Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?
- +$95.85at 0.614Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 14, 2026?
- +$92.02at 0.686Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $925B by September 30?
- +$77.31at 0.227Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during his remarks at the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 19:20 | Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $4.24 |
| 10-31 19:20 | Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026? | BUY | 0.66 | $42.85 |
| 10-30 23:49 | Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher? | BUY | 0.85 | $4.25 |
| 10-28 23:29 | Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? | BUY | 0.1479115044 | $16.71 |
| 10-28 23:25 | Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $13.60 |
| 10-28 23:25 | Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $66.00 |
| 10-28 11:51 | Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $13.00 |
| 10-28 11:47 | Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | SELL | 0.2100029587 | $149.05 |
| 10-28 11:47 | Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | SELL | 0.22 | $16.06 |
| 10-28 11:45 | Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | SELL | 0.23 | $92.08 |
| 10-28 11:45 | Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | SELL | 0.24 | $12.00 |
| 10-27 23:04 | Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026? | BUY | 0.66 | $13.20 |
| 10-27 23:03 | Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | SELL | 0.2 | $93.80 |
| 10-27 00:30 | Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $5.70 |
| 10-27 00:29 | Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | BUY | 0.18 | $9.00 |