0x8db2d4215b846426529b090dcc18d12d772db0f4
0x8db2d4215b846426529b090dcc18d12d772db0f4
- Realised P&L
- $6.75
- Volume
- $414.59
- Markets traded
- 119
- Open portfolio
- $4.90
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded119
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? · Yes | 0.460 | 1.000 | $2.17 | +$1.17 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.755 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $960 Week of October 19 2026? · No | 0.830 | 0.810 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 19? · No | 0.540 | 0.415 | $0.77 | −$0.23 |
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 15% to 17.5%? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
- +$5.62at 0.270Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 4?
- +$4.18at 0.331Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 13:16 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-20 05:16 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $960 Week of October 19 2026? | BUY | 0.8299999087 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 07:47 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 15% to 17.5%? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 23:46 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 14:34 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 19? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 06:31 | Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 22:30 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 01:33 | Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 01:33 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.7799995632 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 17:33 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 09:13 | Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 86% to 89%? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 11:14 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 00:53 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 00:45 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 16:35 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |