0x8dafe883c7a6c0ed644c9d755ddf7885a7988b13
0x8dafe883c7a6c0ed644c9d755ddf7885a7988b13
- Realised P&L
- $84.64
- Volume
- $8.4k
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $492.60
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026? · No | 0.710 | 0.705 | $287.96 | −$2.04 |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.766 | 1.000 | $141.64 | +$33.10 |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.180 | $63.00 | +$24.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$188.46at 0.637Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04?
- +$74.11at 0.575WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 6?
- +$73.59at 0.818Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$48.46at 0.642Starmer out by June 22, 2026?
- +$38.47at 0.570US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 19:32 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.766293997 | $108.54 |
| 10-03 11:13 | Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $38.50 |
| 10-03 11:10 | Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | BUY | 0.7099999997 | $290.00 |
| 07-14 20:21 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.051 | $31.60 |
| 07-12 09:20 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3849999988 | $140.31 |
| 07-07 17:36 | Argentina vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in Second Half | BUY | 0.5999999976 | $50.00 |
| 07-07 17:33 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.2 | $48.72 |
| 07-07 17:33 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.017 | $3.64 |
| 07-05 10:05 | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.07 | $20.02 |
| 07-05 10:05 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.068 | $17.51 |
| 06-22 18:01 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.067 | $18.66 |
| 06-20 20:29 | Starmer out by June 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299999998 | $85.39 |
| 06-08 18:20 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY | 0.8399999957 | $171.43 |
| 05-10 17:26 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? | SELL | 0.0812906186 | $28.34 |
| 05-10 17:20 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? | BUY | 0.9099999971 | $315.87 |