kappinator
0x8dab04347717f3765c76552fa23a4183fc8513f4
- Realised P&L
- $-16.70
- Volume
- $1.6k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $37.24
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration71.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$26.85at 0.240Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$25.67at 0.163Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$-1.00at 0.020Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?
- +$-1.00at 0.005Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?
- +$-2.00at 0.090Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-21 03:55 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.2999999828 | $8.72 |
| 07-21 03:54 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.3889999938 | $20.00 |
| 07-20 09:24 | Will VfB Stuttgart be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 06-22 07:34 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | BUY | 0.5099999906 | $18.98 |
| 06-17 04:51 | Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? | BUY | 0.1399999426 | $2.00 |
| 06-17 04:50 | Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? | BUY | 0.08 | $2.00 |
| 06-15 10:28 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.162999976 | $5.00 |
| 06-15 10:28 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1609999762 | $5.00 |
| 06-15 10:22 | Will USD reach 18,500 Indonesian rupiah by June 30? | BUY | 0.1199998992 | $1.00 |
| 06-15 10:22 | Will USD reach 18,500 Indonesian rupiah by June 30? | BUY | 0.1137547618 | $1.00 |
| 06-15 10:14 | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL | 0.98 | $35.56 |
| 04-06 17:41 | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.2399999835 | $8.71 |
| 04-03 16:20 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET | BUY | 0.359999987 | $9.08 |
| 04-03 16:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET | BUY | 0.479999952 | $1.85 |
| 04-03 16:12 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET | BUY | 0.08 | $0.87 |