Adirelad
0x8da6ed13544ee02c128205b68f46812b4d87c757
- Realised P&L
- $-117.59
- Volume
- $25.4k
- Markets traded
- 111
- Open portfolio
- $0.98
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded111
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026? · Yes | 0.434 | 0.055 | $0.98 | −$6.78 |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? · Yes | 0.341 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$48.38 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$111.86at 0.563Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?
- +$95.80at 0.555Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
- +$81.95at 0.475Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
- +$63.88at 0.497Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET
- +$60.00at 0.524Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-15 18:33 | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY | 0.008 | $1.00 |
| 05-05 03:48 | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | SELL | 0.24 | $10.00 |
| 05-04 18:20 | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY | 0.3599999938 | $30.00 |
| 05-01 14:48 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $397.50 Week of April 27 2026? | BUY | 0.2741019 | $27.41 |
| 05-01 14:31 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $397.50 Week of April 27 2026? | SELL | 0.96 | $96.00 |
| 05-01 03:42 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $390 Week of April 27 2026? | SELL | 0.9266409861 | $6.01 |
| 04-30 17:42 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $390 Week of April 27 2026? | BUY | 0.7699998691 | $5.00 |
| 04-30 17:41 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $390 Week of April 27 2026? | SELL | 0.23 | $2.76 |
| 04-30 16:59 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $390 Week of April 27 2026? | BUY | 0.44 | $5.28 |
| 04-30 14:50 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $397.50 Week of April 27 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $50.00 |
| 04-30 13:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET | BUY | 0.1113706193 | $4.64 |
| 04-30 13:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET | SELL | 0.155 | $3.10 |
| 04-30 13:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET | BUY | 0.27 | $5.40 |
| 04-29 21:17 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $457.50 Week of April 27 2026? | SELL | 0.9464006827 | $44.36 |
| 04-29 13:06 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $457.50 Week of April 27 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $30.00 |