0x8d957ec2cfbeebc9db745f41c9a06378548f88b0
0x8d957ec2cfbeebc9db745f41c9a06378548f88b0
- Realised P&L
- $-19.99
- Volume
- $286.00
- Markets traded
- 5
- Open portfolio
- $144.32
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded5
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration70.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alfajer play for Gentle Mates in 2027? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.920 | $144.32 | +$12.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.37at 0.966Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 9?
- +$0.16at 0.985Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?
- +$-9.50at 0.039Will Trump win FIFA Peace Prize?
- +$-11.02at 0.480Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 04:15 | Will Alfajer play for Gentle Mates in 2027? | BUY | 0.84 | $131.77 |
| 12-10 20:35 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10? | BUY | 0.4799999843 | $11.02 |
| 12-08 23:38 | Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 9? | BUY | 0.9659999982 | $10.64 |
| 12-05 21:15 | Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5? | BUY | 0.9849999995 | $10.48 |
| 12-05 11:04 | Will Trump win FIFA Peace Prize? | BUY | 0.0218857567 | $2.00 |