0x8d93fc7236d08a6462c0a92a58c176fd8eed1f21
- Realised P&L
- $-7.47
- Volume
- $91.74
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $12.25
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)29.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of August 3 2026? · No | 0.480 | 0.665 | $2.77 | +$0.77 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $132 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.997 | $2.77 | +$0.77 |
| Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? · No | 0.590 | 0.645 | $2.20 | +$0.19 |
| Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of August 3 2026? · No | 0.710 | 0.635 | $1.79 | −$0.21 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.430 | 0.375 | $1.74 | −$0.26 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.185 | $1.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.60at 0.550Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?
- +$1.34at 0.560Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
- +$0.68at 0.730Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during July Press Conference?
- +$0.63at 0.760Will Trump say "Save America" during Michigan remarks?
- +$0.41at 0.800Will Trump say "Shots fired" or "Shots will be fired" during White House Correspondents Dinner?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 17:29 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $132 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 09:27 | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 00:05 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.479999952 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 16:03 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July? | BUY | 0.2799999048 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 06:36 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 22:34 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.3699999112 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 13:21 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 04:11 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.35 | $1.05 |
| 07-31 20:10 | Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? | BUY | 0.5899999941 | $2.01 |
| 07-31 12:08 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-30 02:10 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-29 01:28 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-28 10:53 | Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | BUY | 0.5599999345 | $1.71 |
| 07-27 17:55 | Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.5499999298 | $1.96 |
| 07-27 01:50 | Will Warsh say "Dollar" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.6899999542 | $1.96 |