CopyMEyouwillwin
0x8d580342a29658a464abcf3b9c77bbe317834205
- Realised P&L
- $-300.69
- Volume
- $13.5k
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $84.90
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration89.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nate Sheppard be the 2026 D1 Rushing Yards Leader? · No | 0.781 | 0.469 | $75.72 | −$50.51 |
| Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%? · No | 0.720 | 0.400 | $6.88 | −$5.50 |
| Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government? · No | 0.840 | 0.825 | $1.24 | −$0.02 |
| Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? · No | 0.239 | 0.319 | $0.72 | +$0.18 |
| Will Hayden Panettiere be the #1 searched passing on Google this year? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.330 | $0.34 | +$0.00 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$95.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET · Up | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$367.74at 0.135Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?
- +$179.65at 0.141Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
- +$125.50at 0.249Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
- +$93.49at 0.313Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
- +$87.20at 0.282Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-27 22:36 | Will Jeremiyah Love win the 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season? | BUY | 0.22 | $4.40 |
| 09-27 22:35 | Will Philadelphia Eagles win the 2026 NFC East? | BUY | 0.59 | $11.80 |
| 09-27 22:30 | Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999989 | $64.81 |
| 09-27 22:28 | Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.728981975 | $121.73 |
| 09-27 22:05 | Jon Ossoff Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31? | BUY | 0.3599999907 | $10.79 |
| 09-27 22:04 | Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31? | BUY | 0.13 | $65.00 |
| 09-27 21:52 | Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $450.00 |
| 09-27 21:37 | Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | BUY | 0.4288075385 | $17.98 |
| 09-27 21:35 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.136 | $68.00 |
| 09-27 21:05 | Will Nolo peak at Category 4? | BUY | 0.58 | $11.60 |
| 09-27 21:00 | Will Heidi Alexander be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet? | BUY | 0.8809999996 | $168.43 |
| 09-27 18:39 | Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $5.40 |
| 09-26 17:23 | Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.00T and $2.25T? | BUY | 0.2633852763 | $84.29 |
| 09-26 16:36 | Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government? | BUY | 0.84 | $42.00 |
| 09-26 15:05 | Will Anthropic be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $17.60 |