WeatherKirby
0x8d2e6e6e51392b16ba7d7e0f48d5f41e719b770b
- Realised P&L
- $600.70
- Volume
- $149.4k
- Markets traded
- 4,920
- Open portfolio
- $13.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded4,920
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration24.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 3? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.359 | $3.60 | +$1.50 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on October 3? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.455 | $3.19 | +$0.94 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on October 3? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.445 | $3.12 | +$1.01 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on October 3? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.330 | $2.31 | +$0.21 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on October 3? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.170 | $1.36 | −$0.96 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 8°C on October 1? · No | 0.990 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.85 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$217.17at 0.413Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 4?
- +$216.05at 0.100Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on May 18?
- +$168.87at 0.330Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on February 27?
- +$135.20at 0.099Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on March 16?
- +$133.21at 0.100Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 4?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 04:16 | Will the lowest temperature in Jeddah be 28°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.99 | $9.90 |
| 10-01 04:16 | Will the lowest temperature in Jeddah be 26°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 10-01 04:14 | Will the lowest temperature in Karachi be 24°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.99 | $9.90 |
| 10-01 04:10 | Will the lowest temperature in Lucknow be 22°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.9866193374 | $14.59 |
| 10-01 04:08 | Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.99 | $9.90 |
| 10-01 03:47 | Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.98 | $4.90 |
| 10-01 03:45 | Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 8°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.99 | $14.85 |
| 10-01 03:32 | Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.995 | $20.89 |
| 09-29 13:19 | Will the lowest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on September 29? | BUY | 0.99 | $19.80 |
| 09-29 13:19 | Will the lowest temperature in Los Angeles be between 58-59°F on September 29? | BUY | 0.99 | $14.85 |
| 09-29 13:17 | Will the lowest temperature in Mexico City be 15°C on September 29? | BUY | 0.9866666667 | $14.80 |
| 09-29 13:17 | Will the lowest temperature in Mexico City be 14°C on September 29? | BUY | 0.967003342 | $26.04 |
| 09-29 11:14 | Will the lowest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on September 29? | BUY | 0.59 | $4.31 |
| 09-29 11:13 | Will the lowest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on September 29? | BUY | 0.99 | $9.90 |
| 09-29 11:11 | Will the lowest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on September 29? | BUY | 0.6 | $6.32 |