makeadream
0x8d19a9a13f48588865f0743e3d2db64bf325be54
- Realised P&L
- $-2.9k
- Volume
- $1.99M
- Markets traded
- 231
- Open portfolio
- $2.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded231
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? · No | 0.882 | 0.945 | $2.2k | +$147.22 |
| Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? · Yes | 0.048 | 0.047 | $22.93 | −$0.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.2kat 0.977Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$2.0kat 0.807Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?
- +$1.3kat 0.950Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?
- +$1.2kat 0.965Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?
- +$1.1kat 0.571Maduro out by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-01 06:29 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.15 | $231.57 |
| 09-01 03:58 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.15 | $147.69 |
| 09-01 03:57 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.15 | $182.34 |
| 09-01 03:54 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.16 | $241.17 |
| 08-28 09:17 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.13 | $118.92 |
| 08-04 03:56 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $122.45 |
| 07-24 15:22 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.16 | $162.57 |
| 07-24 07:12 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $7.60 |
| 07-24 07:10 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $5.60 |
| 07-20 17:22 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.21 | $27.83 |
| 07-20 10:37 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $19.88 |
| 07-16 18:37 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $2.3k |
| 07-13 20:06 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $0.36 |
| 07-12 19:38 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $0.30 |
| 07-07 21:52 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.47 | $88.68 |