bermyd
0x8d15a872e8b0f9d895bcd2cefc511a09ae4c5a77
- Realised P&L
- $-23.83
- Volume
- $2.9k
- Markets traded
- 53
- Open portfolio
- $1.47
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded53
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample49 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? · Yes | 0.637 | 0.158 | $0.79 | −$2.40 |
| Will Frosinone qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Europa League? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.038 | $0.34 | +$0.05 |
| Will Ethereum hit $6k by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.043 | 0.029 | $0.17 | −$0.08 |
| Will FC Barcelona qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Conference League? · Yes | 0.055 | 0.013 | $0.17 | −$0.54 |
| Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$2.65 |
| Will GTE launch a token by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.28 |
| Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in September 2026? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.04 |
| Will Umia launch a token by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.021 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.60at 0.078Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida?
- +$1.41at 0.205Will Dplus win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
- +$0.65at 0.012Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August 2026?
- +$0.65at 0.022Will Julian Alvarez join Chelsea?
- +$0.55at 0.390Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 24 and 27 inclusive?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-20 16:46 | Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.015 | $0.45 |
| 08-20 16:46 | Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.143 | $0.71 |
| 08-20 16:46 | Will the Democrats win the Virginia Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.04 | $0.80 |
| 08-20 16:46 | Will the Democratic Party win the IA-03 House seat? | SELL | 0.25 | $1.25 |
| 08-20 16:46 | Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026? | SELL | 0.064 | $1.28 |
| 08-20 16:46 | Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.057 | $1.14 |
| 08-20 16:46 | Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | SELL | 0.32 | $2.56 |
| 08-20 16:46 | Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Sergipe? | SELL | 0.04 | $4.00 |
| 08-20 04:31 | Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 20 and 23 inclusive? | SELL | 0.445 | $8.90 |
| 08-19 16:15 | Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida? | SELL | 0.999 | $4.99 |