Itch166
0x8d0d6d9552e046ec6bba135bbdbed033d4d3982a
- Realised P&L
- $-205.18
- Volume
- $2.4k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $130.22
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)12.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? · Yes | 0.205 | 0.070 | $69.38 | −$135.51 |
| Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? · Yes | 0.670 | 1.000 | $60.84 | +$20.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.71at 0.118Will the Liberal Party win by 1–24 seats?
- +$-0.55at 0.953Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?
- +$-3.00at 0.161Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats?
- +$-7.77at 0.069Will the Conservative Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?
- +$-14.04at 0.438OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-31 05:40 | Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | BUY | 0.8342622871 | $14.54 |
| 03-31 05:07 | Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | BUY | 0.6099999854 | $10.48 |
| 03-31 04:52 | Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | BUY | 0.6 | $15.74 |
| 03-31 03:18 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.2065843488 | $200.89 |
| 03-31 03:16 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.1549999709 | $4.00 |
| 06-16 21:03 | Oilers vs. Panthers | BUY | 0.4199999973 | $34.80 |
| 06-16 21:02 | OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025? | SELL | 0.31 | $33.96 |
| 05-06 15:51 | OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025? | BUY | 0.4399999736 | $8.00 |
| 05-06 15:50 | OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025? | BUY | 0.4377020611 | $40.00 |
| 04-29 18:32 | Will the Conservative Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.23 |
| 04-29 18:32 | Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? | SELL | 0.901 | $9.45 |
| 04-29 15:59 | Will the Liberal Party win by 1–24 seats? | SELL | 0.3059782626 | $38.71 |
| 04-29 06:12 | Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? | BUY | 0.952999999 | $10.00 |
| 04-29 05:37 | Will the Conservative Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 04-29 05:25 | Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.69 |