0x8cfbe51bf47f26001543e39cdd3743b7404a0189
0x8cfbe51bf47f26001543e39cdd3743b7404a0189
- Realised P&L
- $-15.24
- Volume
- $250.75
- Markets traded
- 49
- Open portfolio
- $2.64
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded49
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample45 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $174 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.320 | $1.03 | −$1.26 |
| Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $197.50 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.300 | 0.125 | $0.95 | −$1.34 |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $212 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.075 | $0.54 | −$1.75 |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? · No | 0.400 | 0.021 | $0.12 | −$2.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.52at 0.260US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
- +$4.45at 0.340US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
- +$3.38at 0.410Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas?
- +$2.86at 0.450S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on August 4?
- +$1.53at 0.6000 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 18:38 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $197.50 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.2999999738 | $2.29 |
| 09-21 06:08 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $174 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.7099999349 | $2.29 |
| 09-21 06:07 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $690 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999515 | $2.29 |
| 09-20 22:02 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $212 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.29 |
| 09-19 04:58 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.29 |
| 09-10 08:59 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.6199998971 | $2.29 |
| 09-10 00:54 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999547 | $2.29 |
| 09-02 20:39 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $177 Week of August 31 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999841 | $2.29 |
| 09-02 12:33 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 2? | BUY | 0.6099999547 | $2.29 |
| 09-01 11:30 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $100 Week of August 31 2026? | BUY | 0.2999999214 | $2.29 |
| 09-01 03:24 | Will Andy Burnham say "Starmer" during the next PMQ? | BUY | 0.2799999266 | $2.29 |
| 08-25 16:38 | Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31? | BUY | 0.7699999428 | $2.29 |
| 08-25 07:06 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.2999999214 | $2.29 |
| 08-23 22:43 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 24? | BUY | 0.4799999245 | $2.29 |
| 08-23 09:34 | Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August? | BUY | 0.4399999308 | $2.29 |