0x8cefc55adc2f05a27f95fb9e8b0d86ecda70cb83
0x8cefc55adc2f05a27f95fb9e8b0d86ecda70cb83
- Realised P&L
- $92.28
- Volume
- $688.75
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $78.25
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar13.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration64.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 27? · Yes | 0.192 | 0.145 | $56.10 | −$18.36 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 27? · Yes | 0.518 | 0.590 | $21.43 | +$2.60 |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 26? · Yes | 0.219 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$72.12at 0.407Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 23?
- +$16.46at 0.462Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 24?
- +$13.06at 0.426Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on September 26?
- +$5.28at 0.788Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 25?
- +$5.19at 0.648Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 22?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-27 04:10 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 27? | BUY | 0.5199999968 | $13.18 |
| 09-27 04:08 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 27? | BUY | 0.5145358659 | $5.65 |
| 09-27 02:09 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 27? | BUY | 0.225183232 | $10.86 |
| 09-27 02:09 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 27? | BUY | 0.2145304364 | $6.66 |
| 09-27 02:09 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 27? | BUY | 0.2188729493 | $29.13 |
| 09-27 02:09 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 27? | BUY | 0.2031973007 | $5.75 |
| 09-27 02:08 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 27? | BUY | 0.1508833877 | $22.06 |
| 09-26 06:11 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 26? | BUY | 0.279999986 | $2.40 |
| 09-26 06:11 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 26? | BUY | 0.2682352941 | $3.42 |
| 09-26 06:11 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 26? | BUY | 0.2752542186 | $2.90 |
| 09-26 06:10 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 26? | BUY | 0.2041046877 | $4.30 |
| 09-26 06:10 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 26? | BUY | 0.19 | $1.90 |
| 09-26 06:10 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 26? | BUY | 0.1846520524 | $2.12 |
| 09-26 06:10 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 26? | BUY | 0.1621296214 | $2.06 |
| 09-26 05:11 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on September 26? | BUY | 0.4199999604 | $4.03 |