Deceinber10
0x8ce8b08bb10afe135f1b5b2d38f278880bc4beb6
- Realised P&L
- $-156.03
- Volume
- $19.4k
- Markets traded
- 109
- Open portfolio
- $32.31
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded109
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration60.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration96.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on October 8? · No | 0.994 | 0.998 | $31.31 | +$0.11 |
| Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.986 | 0.990 | $1.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.36 |
| Oilers vs. Flyers · Flyers | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$110.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.58at 0.850Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 4?
- +$3.00at 0.030Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$1.21at 0.976Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 5?
- +$1.03at 0.973Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 31?
- +$0.67at 0.600Devils vs. Blackhawks
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 11:53 | Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on October 8? | BUY | 0.9939999999 | $31.20 |
| 10-04 07:08 | Will Ethereum reach $2,900 September 28-October 4? | BUY | 0.993 | $31.20 |
| 08-19 21:19 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 17-23? | SELL | 0.22 | $11.31 |
| 08-18 00:34 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 17-23? | BUY | 0.9739999926 | $50.10 |
| 08-16 12:32 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 16? | BUY | 0.998 | $50.00 |
| 08-05 01:56 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 5? | BUY | 0.9739999996 | $48.80 |
| 08-03 06:28 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 4? | BUY | 0.7899999982 | $38.74 |
| 08-02 02:35 | Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.99164687 | $38.90 |
| 07-30 01:41 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 30? | BUY | 0.9869999999 | $37.50 |
| 07-29 02:08 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 29? | BUY | 0.9809999999 | $36.20 |
| 07-27 04:52 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 27? | BUY | 0.995 | $36.50 |
| 07-26 03:05 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 20-26? | BUY | 0.9859999997 | $36.00 |
| 07-22 14:22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 22? | BUY | 0.999 | $35.00 |
| 07-22 14:19 | Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.976 | $0.99 |
| 07-22 14:19 | Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.98 | $2.96 |