BIG-LONG
0x8cbb33115876bc9648dcb7104c1cd213ccf21af3
- Realised P&L
- $-386.46
- Volume
- $28.8k
- Markets traded
- 811
- Open portfolio
- $19.51
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded811
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on October 18? · Yes | 0.105 | 0.410 | $19.51 | +$14.51 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C or higher on August 9? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.20 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on October 5? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.60 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on October 17? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.60 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET · Up | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on October 6? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET · Down | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$52.92at 0.115Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on July 29?
- +$48.95at 0.020Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 25?
- +$46.46at 0.071Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 23?
- +$25.22at 0.802Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 2?
- +$21.48at 0.280Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-17 16:03 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on October 18? | BUY | 0.105051211 | $5.00 |
| 10-17 06:45 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on October 17? | SELL | 0.04 | $0.40 |
| 10-17 05:38 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on October 17? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.30 |
| 10-17 03:58 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on October 17? | BUY | 0.1 | $0.60 |
| 10-16 13:00 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 16? | SELL | 0.998 | $9.98 |
| 10-16 01:15 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on October 16? | SELL | 0.312270663 | $6.88 |
| 10-15 10:20 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on October 16? | BUY | 0.2269721851 | $5.00 |
| 10-15 06:32 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 15? | SELL | 0.72 | $11.09 |
| 10-15 05:30 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.1948051948 | $3.00 |
| 10-15 05:15 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 15? | SELL | 0.1692930153 | $1.99 |
| 10-15 04:15 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.4257425397 | $5.00 |
| 10-06 01:40 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on October 6? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 16:20 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 15:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET | SELL | 0.98 | $2.00 |
| 10-04 15:45 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |