0x8c9E0850C6CCDEEb8dC28c9f3b70C77CFC5b22fA-1730202276900
0x8c9e0850c6ccdeeb8dc28c9f3b70c77cfc5b22fa
- Realised P&L
- $-1.2k
- Volume
- $8.9k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $67.45
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-13.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration63.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration90.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.735 | $60.92 | +$2.07 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32% in October? · Yes | 0.832 | 0.543 | $6.52 | −$3.48 |
| Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.50 |
| Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$75.00 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.217 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$250.00 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? · Yes | 0.157 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.29at 0.727Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?
- +$9.77at 0.860Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?
- +$0.67at 0.600Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?
- +$-400.00at 0.378Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$-416.23at 0.197No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 09:51 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32% in October? | BUY | 0.832335294 | $10.00 |
| 09-15 20:35 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1099999999 | $50.00 |
| 09-13 19:46 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2199999998 | $100.00 |
| 09-11 12:23 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4099999984 | $100.00 |
| 06-16 05:48 | Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.7099999925 | $58.85 |
| 09-09 20:19 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.1569999987 | $100.00 |
| 09-08 12:11 | No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | SELL | 0.033 | $83.76 |
| 08-23 11:15 | No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.1969809905 | $500.00 |
| 03-17 21:03 | Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? | BUY | 0.005 | $3.50 |
| 01-08 13:07 | Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | BUY | 0.8899999993 | $75.00 |
| 12-10 09:15 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? | BUY | 0.8599999986 | $60.00 |
| 11-20 13:46 | Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? | BUY | 0.7272929488 | $48.79 |
| 11-15 11:43 | Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | BUY | 0.6 | $1.00 |
| 11-05 11:39 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.3779999995 | $400.00 |