Melliv0ra
0x8c814626fe82db7daf5c1dbdec9179209a1f2934
- Realised P&L
- $-13.42
- Volume
- $8.1k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $64.85
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration82.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)23.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-30 House election by 60%-65%? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.235 | $33.13 | −$0.70 |
| Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.175 | $19.35 | −$1.66 |
| Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.135 | $10.94 | −$2.83 |
| Will Anna Kindy win the next North Island British Columbia Legislative Assembly election? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.550 | $1.43 | −$0.13 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026? · No | 0.056 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.78 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.19at 0.220Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
- +$1.82at 0.144Will Republicans win the New Hampshire Governor election and Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate election?
- +$1.49at 0.376Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.160Will Vicentinho Júnior win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election?
- +$0.00at 0.180Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 16:07 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.0556865147 | $8.78 |
| 11-26 19:45 | Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? | BUY | 0.004 | $4.00 |
| 11-26 18:59 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 26? | BUY | 0.001 | $5.00 |