0x8C7B26969470BD87494B5d406C3e84256D102a87-1762399744083
0x8c7b26969470bd87494b5d406c3e84256d102a87
- Realised P&L
- $12.1k
- Volume
- $581.0k
- Markets traded
- 131
- Open portfolio
- $39.42
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded131
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.4kat 0.100Will the government shutdown end November 13?
- +$11.4kat 0.299Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?
- +$5.2kat 0.539Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$2.7kat 0.735Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30?
- +$1.3kat 0.360Maduro out by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-09 16:00 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.99 | $11.1k |
| 12-05 15:43 | Will RFK end Hepatitis B vaccine recommendation in 2025? | BUY | 0.1602780478 | $16.49 |
| 12-05 15:42 | Will RFK end Hepatitis B vaccine recommendation in 2025? | BUY | 0.1146374761 | $358.23 |
| 12-05 06:34 | Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3486458333 | $33.47 |
| 12-05 06:33 | Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3303683824 | $44.93 |
| 12-05 06:33 | Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3258015267 | $149.38 |
| 12-05 04:58 | Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025? | BUY | 0.2956591819 | $185.26 |
| 12-05 04:48 | Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? | BUY | 0.2487620337 | $303.16 |
| 12-05 04:01 | Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement? | BUY | 0.3208559768 | $144.65 |
| 12-05 03:34 | Will Comcast acquire Warner Bros. Discovery? | SELL | 0.0241898377 | $6.35 |
| 12-05 03:33 | Will Netflix acquire Warner Bros. Discovery? | BUY | 0.5066071772 | $31.62 |
| 12-05 03:33 | Will Netflix acquire Warner Bros. Discovery? | BUY | 0.4951071886 | $65.77 |
| 12-05 03:33 | Will Netflix acquire Warner Bros. Discovery? | BUY | 0.499 | $29.94 |
| 12-04 03:39 | U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31? | BUY | 0.5283330555 | $63.39 |
| 12-03 02:35 | Trump x Putin Meeting in Hungary by Dec 31? | SELL | 0.0645369661 | $175.28 |