mkln
0x8c3e5fc310f9ed66fc025ce6a6919e51ecfc208d
- Realised P&L
- $517.98
- Volume
- $23.7k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $204.61
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration81.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.011 | $126.50 | −$269.25 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.012 | $51.88 | −$68.12 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.276 | 0.140 | $25.33 | −$24.67 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$59.99 |
| Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Austria? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.00 |
| Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Austria? · Yes | 0.079 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$820.00at 0.120US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$139.47at 0.380US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
- +$51.63at 0.299US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-21 11:37 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0089999991 | $10.00 |
| 07-21 11:37 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.0219415432 | $40.00 |
| 07-07 19:15 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0169222999 | $50.00 |
| 07-07 19:15 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.032 | $80.00 |
| 07-07 19:14 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2763996186 | $50.00 |
| 07-07 19:13 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.035 | $4.73 |
| 07-02 19:15 | Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Austria? | BUY | 0.1 | $22.00 |
| 07-02 19:14 | Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Austria? | BUY | 0.0787401575 | $50.00 |
| 06-20 08:33 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.2987852748 | $22.00 |
| 06-14 22:52 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $239.47 |
| 06-14 22:52 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.726 | $983.00 |
| 06-12 08:09 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.1203846057 | $163.00 |
| 06-12 08:09 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999987 | $100.00 |