Zephyrx1
0x8c1a4fa41cdd17d6d11684935546f1e27d172b32
- Realised P&L
- $1.3k
- Volume
- $110.0k
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $64.44
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample42 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)69.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.655 | $32.75 | +$7.75 |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.500 | 0.345 | $17.25 | −$7.75 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the LA-02 House seat? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.979 | $9.79 | +$3.19 |
| Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat? · No | 0.850 | 0.465 | $4.65 | −$3.85 |
| Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? · Yes | 0.649 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$32.48 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$855.67at 0.215Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire
- +$186.47at 0.627Spurs vs. Thunder
- +$175.26at 0.440Heat vs. Suns
- +$123.18at 0.819Thunder vs. Lakers
- +$100.00at 0.500Knicks vs. 76ers
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 15:46 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? | BUY | 0.6495208 | $32.48 |
| 07-19 05:35 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? | BUY | 0.9 | $18.00 |
| 07-09 14:22 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY | 0.84 | $16.80 |
| 07-02 06:45 | Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections? | BUY | 0.72 | $14.40 |
| 06-20 15:42 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? | BUY | 0.83 | $16.60 |
| 06-11 09:27 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.82 | $16.40 |
| 06-09 02:02 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.1770555556 | $15.94 |
| 06-04 02:33 | Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL | 0.41 | $205.00 |
| 06-03 23:31 | Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL | 0.36 | $504.00 |
| 05-31 07:05 | Knicks vs. Spurs | BUY | 0.36 | $1.5k |
| 05-31 00:33 | Spurs vs. Thunder | BUY | 0.62 | $310.00 |
| 05-30 05:41 | Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire | BUY | 0.21 | $228.90 |
| 05-20 07:16 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.378 | $34.02 |
| 05-13 02:24 | Timberwolves vs. Spurs | BUY | 0.991 | $991.00 |
| 05-12 05:18 | Thunder vs. Lakers | BUY | 0.88 | $168.72 |