Sokavik
0x8c00805a0f0d54cbdd2fa72d62233f58ca29f516
- Realised P&L
- $-1.6k
- Volume
- $79.4k
- Markets traded
- 70
- Open portfolio
- $18.07
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded70
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? · Yes | 0.204 | 0.115 | $18.07 | −$13.98 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.06 |
| Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$129.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 by December 31, 2025? · No | 0.114 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$136.80 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $126k in October? · No | 0.288 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$106.00 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$51.00 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$677.58at 0.285Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
- +$408.84at 0.172Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?
- +$174.38at 0.352Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
- +$153.33at 0.600Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
- +$109.61at 0.409Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia by September 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-14 04:10 | Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? | BUY | 0.2039590366 | $32.05 |
| 02-26 09:02 | Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1? | BUY | 0.68 | $55.00 |
| 02-20 02:12 | Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22? | BUY | 0.75 | $51.00 |
| 02-20 02:09 | Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999956 | $31.00 |
| 02-16 06:53 | Will the US not strike Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999966 | $36.00 |
| 10-04 17:53 | Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.114 | $136.80 |
| 10-04 17:51 | Will Bitcoin reach $126k in October? | BUY | 0.2877369208 | $106.00 |
| 09-29 04:12 | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BUY | 0.5999999995 | $230.00 |
| 09-29 04:08 | Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 by December 31, 2025? | SELL | 0.3197070187 | $362.26 |
| 08-14 03:25 | Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.0529514604 | $60.00 |
| 08-14 03:23 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | SELL | 0.14 | $62.80 |
| 07-24 20:06 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.2299998979 | $1.69 |
| 07-24 20:05 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.2365025543 | $25.02 |
| 07-24 20:04 | Will Bitcoin reach $125K in July? | SELL | 0.72 | $23.76 |
| 07-24 20:03 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.2385228318 | $80.01 |