honestly1
0x8bd74f75bc54794ad2510b597111cff96f861e8b
- Realised P&L
- $-453.32
- Volume
- $19.8k
- Markets traded
- 117
- Open portfolio
- $1.60
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded117
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration99.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)4.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hollywood Smothers be the 2026 D1 Rushing Yards Leader? · Yes | 0.079 | 0.019 | $1.60 | −$5.04 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in September? · No | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.45at 0.660Toronto Blue Jays vs. Athletics
- +$0.40at 0.932Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by October 31, 2026?
- +$0.13at 0.220Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?
- +$0.01at 0.026Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.390US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 20:12 | Will Fernando Mendoza win the 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season? | SELL | 0.06 | $1.20 |
| 09-23 14:06 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.37 | $74.00 |
| 09-23 13:12 | Will Delegado André David win the most votes in the 2026 Sergipe Senate election? | SELL | 0.38 | $7.60 |
| 09-23 12:31 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.456 | $9.12 |
| 09-23 12:07 | Will Inter Milan reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal? | SELL | 0.74 | $21.46 |
| 09-23 12:05 | Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections? | SELL | 0.264 | $19.80 |
| 09-23 11:17 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $3.20 |
| 09-23 10:16 | Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.69 | $13.11 |
| 09-23 07:18 | Will Australia win Group D at the 2027 AFC Asian Cup? | SELL | 0.23 | $17.25 |
| 09-23 04:37 | Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | SELL | 0.38 | $28.50 |
| 09-23 04:37 | Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | SELL | 0.664 | $29.54 |
| 09-23 04:30 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.86 | $68.80 |
| 09-23 04:00 | Will Elon tweet 800-839 times in September 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $50.40 |
| 09-23 02:50 | Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals? | SELL | 0.53 | $34.98 |
| 09-17 17:26 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30? | SELL | 0.019 | $2.66 |