0xp1rate
0x8b9be83525d8358fb868cb34d98eff777b8b48f4
- Realised P&L
- $1.3k
- Volume
- $8.0k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $86.06
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar16.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration99.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.021 | $50.38 | −$28.62 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? · Yes | 0.054 | 0.019 | $35.67 | −$64.98 |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.79 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.4kat 0.170Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$4.19at 0.706Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5
- +$0.55at 0.120Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?
- +$-1.86at 0.144Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 10:18 | Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0329992652 | $44.91 |
| 09-24 10:16 | Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.032 | $21.81 |
| 09-24 10:15 | Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.031 | $3.76 |
| 09-24 10:15 | Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.029 | $8.53 |
| 07-08 10:57 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.043 | $47.98 |
| 07-08 10:56 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.042 | $8.40 |
| 07-08 10:54 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.042 | $2.39 |
| 06-13 19:36 | Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.95 | $22.79 |
| 06-12 21:25 | Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? | SELL | 0.12 | $8.32 |
| 06-12 20:46 | Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 | SELL | 0.99 | $14.64 |
| 06-12 20:24 | Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.7 | $10.35 |
| 06-12 19:55 | Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? | SELL | 0.13 | $10.84 |
| 06-12 15:20 | Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? | BUY | 0.14 | $9.71 |
| 05-09 18:34 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.0829719691 | $41.88 |
| 03-01 07:48 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.998 | $1.6k |