Phomaiar
0x8b696fdf452bfc7bed211d94f2824e403594d36f
- Realised P&L
- $540.64
- Volume
- $26.0k
- Markets traded
- 75
- Open portfolio
- $143.63
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded75
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration74.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.445 | $89.00 | +$3.00 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in December? · No | 0.590 | 0.445 | $31.15 | −$10.15 |
| Surf FDV above $100M one day after launch? · No | 0.318 | 0.270 | $23.48 | −$4.19 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 3? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 23? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$63.47 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? · No | 0.972 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$221.00 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.31 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 27? · Yes | 0.487 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 19? · Yes | 0.658 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$538.67at 0.080Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
- +$72.00at 0.280Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 30?
- +$58.00at 0.463Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 27?
- +$26.65at 0.897Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?
- +$21.30at 0.500Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 23:49 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.43 | $86.00 |
| 09-04 16:19 | Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026? | SELL | 0.84 | $58.80 |
| 09-04 10:32 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.31 |
| 09-03 11:48 | Surf FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.59 | $53.10 |
| 09-03 11:23 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in December? | BUY | 0.59 | $41.30 |
| 09-03 10:34 | Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.86 | $51.58 |
| 05-13 17:49 | Will Manel Kape become UFC champion in 2026? | SELL | 0.7 | $7.00 |
| 05-13 17:44 | Will Manel Kape become UFC champion in 2026? | BUY | 0.7965152458 | $80.00 |
| 05-06 18:15 | Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | SELL | 0.201 | $7.63 |
| 04-29 22:18 | Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be between $150B and $200B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.55966046 | $13.00 |
| 04-29 17:08 | Will Pump.fun dip to $0.0014 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $27.54 |
| 04-13 20:25 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.992 | $143.20 |
| 04-12 19:39 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.9895843537 | $142.85 |
| 04-05 20:01 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.972 | $221.00 |
| 04-05 19:59 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 6? | BUY | 0.8299999978 | $29.27 |