Osvdvoland
0x8b5cb034338810316ea455069d36296bbc15097b
- Realised P&L
- $-15.44
- Volume
- $6.3k
- Markets traded
- 51
- Open portfolio
- $39.15
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded51
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample48 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? · No | 0.540 | 0.640 | $23.70 | +$3.70 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? · No | 0.290 | 0.320 | $11.03 | +$1.03 |
| Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.300 | $4.41 | −$0.59 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.291 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · No | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Israel election happen as scheduled? · No | 0.079 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Iran full airspace closure by September 30? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$120.44at 0.468Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?
- +$33.61at 0.689Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$17.00at 0.150US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?
- +$8.00at 0.200US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
- +$7.87at 0.610Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-22 17:08 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | SELL | 0.49 | $21.78 |
| 10-16 15:49 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.5399999881 | $20.00 |
| 10-15 22:03 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2631578947 | $10.00 |
| 10-15 22:02 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 10-15 20:03 | Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.339999985 | $5.00 |
| 10-15 20:02 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | BUY | 0.4499999944 | $20.00 |
| 10-15 19:59 | Will Israel election happen as scheduled? | BUY | 0.0789999991 | $5.00 |
| 10-15 19:58 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | BUY | 0.2899999968 | $10.00 |
| 10-15 19:54 | Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $5.00 |
| 10-15 19:51 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4699999944 | $5.00 |
| 10-15 19:50 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.1899999998 | $10.00 |
| 10-12 20:56 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | SELL | 0.05 | $1.79 |
| 10-12 20:56 | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.85 | $27.86 |
| 10-12 20:54 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.3 | $13.63 |
| 08-03 04:34 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.289999964 | $5.00 |