tyi
0x8b45d183e4b6ab052d4720a83d4930676dd1643f
- Realised P&L
- $6.40
- Volume
- $37.2k
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $34.63
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration7.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 September 21-27? · No | 0.921 | 0.916 | $34.63 | −$0.17 |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.46at 0.642Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$0.76at 0.978Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 September 7-13?
- +$0.69at 0.979Will Ethereum reach $2,600 August 31-September 6?
- +$0.58at 0.981Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in August?
- +$0.42at 0.986Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 12:47 | Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 September 21-27? | BUY | 0.921 | $34.80 |
| 09-18 15:38 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 18? | BUY | 0.99 | $34.65 |
| 09-17 15:14 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on September 17? | BUY | 0.99 | $33.66 |
| 09-13 07:40 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 September 7-13? | BUY | 0.976 | $33.18 |
| 09-09 15:42 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 9? | BUY | 0.989 | $32.64 |
| 09-08 15:39 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 8? | BUY | 0.987 | $32.57 |
| 09-07 14:51 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 7? | BUY | 0.99284375 | $31.77 |
| 09-06 14:26 | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 August 31-September 6? | BUY | 0.977 | $31.26 |
| 09-05 14:25 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 5? | BUY | 0.995 | $31.84 |
| 09-04 14:53 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on September 4? | BUY | 0.986 | $30.57 |
| 09-02 15:29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on September 2? | BUY | 0.994 | $5.27 |
| 08-29 03:56 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in August? | BUY | 0.98 | $30.38 |
| 08-27 03:52 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on August 27? | BUY | 0.993 | $29.79 |
| 08-26 13:03 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on August 26? | BUY | 0.992 | $29.75 |
| 08-25 03:27 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on August 24? | BUY | 0.991 | $24.77 |