0x8b1E29201d6297D66BDCcF01712475d1557FcD5b-1768319128403
0x8b1e29201d6297d66bdccf01712475d1557fcd5b
- Realised P&L
- $9.28
- Volume
- $4.0k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $106.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$28.46at 0.260Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$25.93at 0.151Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
- +$17.74at 0.735Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?
- +$12.60at 0.093Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?
- +$9.52at 0.840Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 12:40 | France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.1097928263 | $26.00 |
| 10-28 18:31 | France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.1000642475 | $27.52 |
| 10-24 12:29 | France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.0799891011 | $22.00 |
| 10-24 12:29 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.978 | $22.08 |
| 10-22 15:54 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.129999999 | $4.00 |
| 10-18 18:14 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.4829999999 | $40.00 |
| 09-20 06:00 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1699999983 | $5.00 |
| 09-15 07:20 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1099999987 | $5.00 |
| 09-15 07:20 | Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1275860708 | $5.00 |
| 09-14 13:20 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.3290009001 | $18.28 |
| 09-11 05:24 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.0899999993 | $5.00 |
| 09-10 17:29 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.58 | $48.33 |
| 09-10 15:48 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999981 | $20.00 |
| 09-10 15:47 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.88 | $21.48 |
| 08-30 06:05 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.86 | $21.00 |