PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x8b1E29201d6297D66BDCcF01712475d1557FcD5b-1768319128403

0x8b1e29201d6297d66bdccf01712475d1557fcd5b

Realised P&L
$9.28
Volume
$4.0k
Markets traded
26
Open portfolio
$106.94

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded26
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration26.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
CautionSettled sample14 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)64.3%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration49.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? · No0.8930.945$52.88+$2.88
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.4830.403$33.33−$6.67
France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.1100.087$20.72−$5.28
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026? · No0.1280.000$0.00−$5.00
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.2900.000$0.00−$5.00
Will the US next strike Iran on January 18, 2026 (ET)? · Yes0.0260.000$0.00−$5.00
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during the Detroit speech on Tuesday? · No0.1380.000$0.00−$23.80
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.1700.000$0.00−$5.00
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.1100.000$0.00−$5.00
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? · Yes0.2500.000$0.00−$21.00
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026? · No0.3800.000$0.00−$20.00
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.1300.000$0.00−$4.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-29 12:40France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027?BUY0.1097928263$26.00
10-28 18:31France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027?SELL0.1000642475$27.52
10-24 12:29France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027?BUY0.0799891011$22.00
10-24 12:29Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?SELL0.978$22.08
10-22 15:54Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?BUY0.129999999$4.00
10-18 18:14Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.4829999999$40.00
09-20 06:00Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?BUY0.1699999983$5.00
09-15 07:20Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?BUY0.1099999987$5.00
09-15 07:20Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?BUY0.1275860708$5.00
09-14 13:20Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?SELL0.3290009001$18.28
09-11 05:24Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?BUY0.0899999993$5.00
09-10 17:29Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?SELL0.58$48.33
09-10 15:48Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?BUY0.2399999981$20.00
09-10 15:47Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?SELL0.88$21.48
08-30 06:05Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.86$21.00