manrant2
0x8b116223a9c9ed1e20d4630e549d27a070395a66
- Realised P&L
- $-117.71
- Volume
- $20.1k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $16.31
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)31.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Million", "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska? · No | 0.170 | 0.360 | $11.56 | +$6.10 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026? · No | 0.027 | 0.023 | $4.74 | −$0.82 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? · No | 0.202 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$126.94 |
| Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? · No | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.36 |
| Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska? · No | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.44 |
| Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.00 |
| Will Trump say "Hottest" during June 24 Rally? · No | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$47.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$335.05at 0.355Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
- +$221.30at 0.311Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?
- +$92.96at 0.441Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
- +$82.68at 0.500T20 World Cup: New Zealand vs South Africa (Game 1)
- +$74.02at 0.330T20 World Cup: Nepal vs Scotland (Game 1)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 06:16 | Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska? | BUY | 0.2 | $9.44 |
| 10-05 05:02 | Will Trump say "Million", "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska? | BUY | 0.169999995 | $5.46 |
| 10-04 14:38 | Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0269999999 | $5.57 |
| 07-10 04:34 | Over $8M committed to the Credible public sale? | BUY | 0.077963802 | $8.33 |
| 06-23 14:00 | Will Trump say "Hottest" during June 24 Rally? | BUY | 0.1499999975 | $47.90 |
| 06-23 07:30 | Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.0278026889 | $16.00 |
| 06-22 20:31 | Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? | SELL | 0.1763438527 | $23.08 |
| 06-21 15:56 | Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.190979976 | $63.19 |
| 06-21 15:51 | Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? | SELL | 0.2122153301 | $28.74 |
| 06-21 15:37 | Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? | SELL | 0.2471428571 | $17.30 |
| 06-21 15:35 | Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? | SELL | 0.25 | $10.00 |
| 06-21 15:30 | Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? | SELL | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 06-20 06:40 | Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.2252113611 | $66.12 |
| 05-21 07:09 | Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.0033787639 | $16.36 |
| 04-18 10:42 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.1167616474 | $21.18 |