Favorite-Birdwatcher
0x8b0f3af8d3ebb9f550d83793a3a05c632b867849
- Realised P&L
- $-311.53
- Volume
- $12.4k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $49.16
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)5.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on October 13? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.017 | $28.44 | −$7.60 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 13? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.009 | $17.88 | −$62.17 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 13? · No | 0.012 | 0.003 | $2.84 | −$11.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$61.91at 0.419Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
- +$-5.37at 0.011Dogecoin Up or Down - October 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
- +$-8.03at 0.075Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET
- +$-9.74at 0.037Ethereum Up or Down - October 13, 5AM ET
- +$-9.95at 0.191Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 10:47 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET | BUY | 0.1499999988 | $12.17 |
| 10-13 10:45 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 13? | BUY | 0.0123439135 | $14.01 |
| 10-13 10:44 | Dogecoin Up or Down - October 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $5.00 |
| 10-13 10:43 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on October 13? | BUY | 0.0209107483 | $36.04 |
| 10-13 10:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET | BUY | 0.0239426621 | $24.62 |
| 10-13 10:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET | BUY | 0.02 | $10.00 |
| 10-13 09:55 | Ethereum Up or Down - October 13, 5AM ET | BUY | 0.0344865305 | $9.08 |
| 10-13 09:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET | BUY | 0.04 | $10.55 |
| 10-13 08:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET | BUY | 0.1099999998 | $21.97 |
| 10-13 08:14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 13? | BUY | 0.0402928343 | $80.05 |
| 10-13 06:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET | BUY | 0.0699999994 | $7.50 |
| 10-13 06:30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 13? | SELL | 0.0049683725 | $8.57 |
| 10-12 15:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET | BUY | 0.2999999986 | $22.22 |
| 10-12 15:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET | BUY | 0.0218229457 | $12.66 |
| 10-12 15:53 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET | BUY | 0.1099999991 | $12.66 |