Baristas
0x8b046494b55b67a4a5ad79b0c196696c103a84da
- Realised P&L
- $863.40
- Volume
- $369.5k
- Markets traded
- 115
- Open portfolio
- $20.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded115
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.957 | 0.962 | $9.4k | +$40.81 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on October 14? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $8.1k | +$4.08 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,200 October 12-18? · No | 0.994 | 0.996 | $995.50 | +$1.50 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on October 15? · No | 0.995 | 1.000 | $964.52 | +$4.34 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on October 15? · No | 0.995 | 0.999 | $900.25 | +$3.16 |
| Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.240 | $63.86 | +$7.98 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on October 14? · No | 0.997 | 0.999 | $4.99 | +$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$220.87at 0.996Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?
- +$75.66at 0.740Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?
- +$35.98at 0.999Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?
- +$30.32at 0.994Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?
- +$28.53at 0.999Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 07:30 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on October 15? | BUY | 0.995 | $502.48 |
| 10-13 07:29 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on October 14? | BUY | 0.997 | $4.99 |
| 10-13 07:29 | Will Ethereum reach $3,200 October 12-18? | BUY | 0.994 | $994.00 |
| 10-13 07:28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on October 15? | BUY | 0.9949874118 | $403.11 |
| 10-13 07:27 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 13? | BUY | 0.998 | $6.5k |
| 10-11 17:59 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $37.8k |
| 10-11 17:58 | Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.999 | $958.27 |
| 10-11 17:58 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.998 | $3.2k |
| 10-10 10:04 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.0k |
| 10-10 10:04 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.0k |
| 10-10 10:03 | Will Solana reach $150 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.64 |
| 10-10 10:01 | Will Ethereum reach $3,100 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.9979969866 | $1.7k |
| 10-10 10:00 | Will Ethereum reach $3,400 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.998 | $4.99 |
| 10-10 09:56 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $4.0k |
| 10-10 09:55 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.0k |