LaCalavera
0x8af44f3a7511b61150f98e1b5f138602f158f24a
- Realised P&L
- $-296.27
- Volume
- $58.6k
- Markets traded
- 1,684
- Open portfolio
- $1.06
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,684
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration47.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Dubois vs. Fabio Wardley · Fabio Wardley | 0.260 | 0.275 | $1.06 | +$0.06 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? · No | 0.895 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 1? · No | 0.910 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 21? · No | 0.900 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.24 |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 26? · No | 0.899 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 21? · No | 0.946 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 14? · No | 0.940 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.16 |
| UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) · Ilia Topuria | 0.840 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$28.65 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET · Up | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Partizan vs. Panathinaikos · Partizan | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.83 |
| Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$114.82at 0.213Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?
- +$58.91at 0.685Will Yi Wei vs. Anish Giri end in a draw?
- +$23.44at 0.329Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET
- +$14.69at 0.149Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$9.49at 0.826Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 17?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 17:02 | Daniel Dubois vs. Fabio Wardley | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 16:43 | Partizan vs. Panathinaikos | BUY | 0.3299999952 | $6.83 |
| 08-04 17:36 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.9819999057 | $1.00 |
| 07-15 18:00 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.581 | $20.31 |
| 06-16 08:24 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1449999765 | $5.07 |
| 06-16 08:22 | UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) | SELL | 0.32 | $5.33 |
| 06-01 14:25 | UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.8399999912 | $7.65 |
| 06-01 14:24 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 1? | SELL | 0.998 | $1.81 |
| 06-01 14:24 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 1? | SELL | 0.997 | $5.24 |
| 06-01 14:23 | UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.84 | $21.00 |
| 06-01 08:08 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 1? | BUY | 0.939999989 | $1.71 |
| 06-01 05:54 | Will Ju Wenjun win Norway Chess 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $0.50 |
| 06-01 05:54 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 1? | BUY | 0.95 | $5.00 |
| 06-01 05:53 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 1? | BUY | 0.91 | $5.00 |
| 06-01 05:53 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? | BUY | 0.8947567245 | $10.00 |