Fridius
0x8adf0798feeea5dc27c7d08307db5f53a47648cd
- Realised P&L
- $-54.1k
- Volume
- $4.52M
- Markets traded
- 1,987
- Open portfolio
- $411.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,987
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration21.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.015 | $411.67 | −$207.91 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.5kat 0.500Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET
- +$1.6kat 0.795Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
- +$1.4kat 0.493Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
- +$1.3kat 0.506Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
- +$1.1kat 0.802Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 12:41 | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.05 | $402.67 |
| 09-29 12:39 | Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | SELL | 0.47 | $11.75 |
| 09-29 12:38 | Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? | SELL | 0.862 | $21.55 |
| 09-29 12:37 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | SELL | 0.985 | $44.33 |
| 09-29 12:36 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.969 | $48.45 |
| 09-29 12:36 | US military draft authorized in 2026? | SELL | 0.958 | $95.80 |
| 09-29 12:13 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.028 | $176.62 |
| 09-19 07:23 | Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.022 | $63.80 |
| 09-14 18:00 | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.052139321 | $2.3k |
| 09-14 17:55 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.026 | $136.39 |
| 09-14 17:53 | Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.025 | $371.08 |
| 08-06 14:08 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on August 6? | BUY | 0.9985888 | $49.93 |
| 08-06 14:06 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 7? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.24 |
| 08-06 14:05 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 7? | SELL | 0.05 | $2.70 |
| 08-06 14:05 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 7? | SELL | 0.58 | $191.40 |