0x8a9c95042bd36eee6a7bb3b6a1f51e37f8bc8d4f
- Realised P&L
- $-20.24
- Volume
- $544.50
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $248.41
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)43.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? · No | 0.258 | 0.195 | $81.35 | −$26.41 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? · No | 0.090 | 0.157 | $43.61 | +$18.61 |
| Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch? · No | 0.561 | 0.920 | $40.99 | +$16.00 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? · No | 0.650 | 0.420 | $25.85 | −$14.15 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? · No | 0.561 | 0.350 | $24.93 | −$15.07 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · No | 0.897 | 0.920 | $15.71 | +$0.40 |
| Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · No | 0.870 | 0.865 | $8.65 | −$0.05 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? · No | 0.936 | 1.000 | $5.34 | +$0.34 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.069 | 0.131 | $1.98 | +$0.93 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.27at 0.628US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
- +$3.83at 0.727Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
- +$1.26at 0.848US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?
- +$0.82at 0.808Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
- +$0.74at 0.843Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 22:25 | France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0694142226 | $1.05 |
| 08-17 03:48 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? | BUY | 0.12 | $1.23 |
| 08-17 02:03 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.05 | $1.01 |
| 08-17 00:53 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.01 |
| 08-16 23:40 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.02 |
| 08-16 23:25 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.03 |
| 08-16 05:50 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.069999958 | $1.50 |
| 08-14 00:58 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $0.76 |
| 08-13 06:57 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099998959 | $1.23 |
| 08-11 11:17 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.51 | $2.10 |
| 08-08 22:22 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.4399999028 | $1.81 |
| 08-08 19:00 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | SELL | 0.81 | $1.24 |
| 08-03 05:01 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.6899999935 | $1.06 |
| 08-03 01:04 | Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7? | BUY | 0.1399999753 | $4.42 |
| 08-01 21:39 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | SELL | 0.25 | $1.15 |