bailele
0x8a6e2f3c4ceabdd3f2d1e73683a796ec6ce21597
- Realised P&L
- $-31.56
- Volume
- $10.7k
- Markets traded
- 104
- Open portfolio
- $0.55
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded104
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Allegiant announce bankruptcy by December 31? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.028 | $0.55 | −$0.05 |
| Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-25? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.85 |
| Spread: 76ers (-2.5) · 76ers | 0.930 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.84 |
| Blackhawks vs. Wild · Blackhawks | 0.900 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$99.67 |
| Utah vs. Panthers: O/U 6.5 · Under | 0.810 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.81 |
| Senators vs. Predators · Senators | 0.942 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$80.00 |
| Will Hibernian FC win on 2026-02-04? · No | 0.890 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.81 |
| Will Australia win on 2026-07-03? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| Utah vs. Hurricanes · Utah | 0.950 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.85 |
| Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs. Canisius Golden Griffins: O/U 134.5 · Under | 0.850 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.83 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET · Down | 0.564 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.90 |
| Bruins vs. Rangers · Bruins | 0.810 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.81 |
| Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-04? · No | 0.920 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.84 |
| Sharks vs. Oilers · Sharks | 0.924 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.58 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$28.38at 0.730Stony Brook Seawolves vs. Northeastern Huskies
- +$27.21at 0.640Florida Gators vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
- +$24.88at 0.660Islanders vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5
- +$22.37at 0.680Flyers vs. Avalanche
- +$20.62at 0.700Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-02 02:34 | Will American Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.60 |
| 07-02 02:34 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | SELL | 0.981 | $1.99 |
| 07-02 02:34 | Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | SELL | 0.87 | $2.93 |
| 07-02 02:33 | Will Australia win on 2026-07-03? | BUY | 0.2899999681 | $6.00 |
| 07-02 02:33 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $6.00 |
| 05-07 03:21 | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY | 0.9789998573 | $5.00 |
| 05-07 03:20 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY | 0.9659998818 | $5.00 |
| 05-07 03:19 | Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.8899999733 | $3.00 |
| 05-07 03:18 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.982999998 | $2.00 |
| 05-07 03:17 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.7299999679 | $5.00 |
| 02-08 21:21 | Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5 | SELL | 0.999 | $2.08 |
| 02-08 21:17 | Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5 | BUY | 0.95 | $1.98 |
| 02-08 01:30 | Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | SELL | 0.991 | $2.10 |
| 02-08 01:28 | Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | BUY | 0.93 | $1.97 |
| 02-06 09:03 | Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET | BUY | 0.5885286514 | $19.41 |