0x8a552Fd1F24B6B556BD964A44f24Ff1B3cd40b10-1743596721131
0x8a552fd1f24b6b556bd964a44f24ff1b3cd40b10
- Realised P&L
- $302.50
- Volume
- $15.3k
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $97.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration57.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample34 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? · No | 0.964 | 0.963 | $48.98 | −$0.05 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-52 House seat? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.985 | $48.59 | +$1.70 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on February 16? · Up | 0.827 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$201.05 |
| Solana Up or Down on August 12? · Down | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$775.00 |
| XRP Up or Down on August 7? · Down | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$429.00 |
| XRP Up or Down on August 3? · Down | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.00 |
| Ethereum Up or Down on August 10? · Down | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$509.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.8kat 0.500Valkyries vs Mystics
- +$347.76at 0.490Panthers vs. Lightning
- +$338.00at 0.480Sperm Race: Noah Boat vs Jimmy Zhang
- +$189.97at 0.557Red Wings vs. Devils
- +$183.87at 0.620Detroit Tigers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 12:54 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.978 | $48.35 |
| 02-24 07:54 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.975 | $21.89 |
| 02-16 13:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down on February 16? | BUY | 0.8273662551 | $201.05 |
| 08-13 07:15 | Valkyries vs Mystics | BUY | 0.5 | $820.00 |
| 08-11 08:54 | Solana Up or Down on August 12? | BUY | 0.5 | $775.00 |
| 08-08 05:47 | Ethereum Up or Down on August 10? | BUY | 0.5 | $509.00 |
| 08-06 10:24 | XRP Up or Down on August 7? | BUY | 0.5 | $429.00 |
| 08-01 12:13 | XRP Up or Down on August 3? | BUY | 0.5 | $9.00 |
| 04-28 06:28 | Cavaliers vs. Heat | BUY | 0.24 | $288.00 |
| 04-23 11:20 | Sperm Race: Noah Boat vs Jimmy Zhang | BUY | 0.48 | $312.00 |
| 04-21 11:51 | Panthers vs. Lightning | BUY | 0.4899119911 | $334.00 |
| 04-18 11:52 | Mavericks vs. Grizzlies | BUY | 0.32 | $139.00 |
| 04-16 11:18 | Red Wings vs. Devils | BUY | 0.557150605 | $239.00 |
| 04-15 11:46 | Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees | BUY | 0.6599999997 | $222.00 |
| 04-14 07:38 | Detroit Tigers vs. Milwaukee Brewers | BUY | 0.6199999994 | $300.00 |