Vingtoft
0x8a48aba187d3cb1695ed408c0112df03eddc7bc7
- Realised P&L
- $-96.64
- Volume
- $393.5k
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $747.35
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample39 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration88.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.005 | $657.35 | −$113.59 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.045 | $90.00 | −$110.00 |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.00 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? · Yes | 0.078 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$757.79at 0.032Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
- +$195.29at 0.386Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$170.18at 0.495US military action against Iran before July?
- +$66.67at 0.150Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
- +$58.80at 0.944Will GPT-5 be released on August 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-11 23:42 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0069999986 | $5.00 |
| 07-11 23:41 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $23.08 |
| 07-03 06:57 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | BUY | 0.8599999656 | $2.00 |
| 07-01 10:16 | Will England win on 2026-07-01? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 06-20 17:32 | Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? | BUY | 0.016 | $9.00 |
| 06-18 07:28 | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | BUY | 0.0776121836 | $100.00 |
| 06-17 19:39 | Will England win on 2026-06-17? | BUY | 0.59 | $64.29 |
| 06-17 08:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET | BUY | 0.6099999988 | $25.00 |
| 06-16 12:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET | BUY | 0.7599999696 | $5.00 |
| 06-16 12:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET | BUY | 0.75 | $5.00 |
| 06-16 12:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET | BUY | 0.75 | $5.00 |
| 06-16 12:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET | BUY | 0.9199999985 | $25.00 |
| 05-13 06:50 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.086 | $38.90 |
| 05-07 18:15 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.0949999981 | $42.97 |
| 05-05 04:18 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $200.00 |