0x8a30b58739a79d7c710264c7ec9768d22de09c67
- Realised P&L
- $-1.38
- Volume
- $678.00
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $38.13
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? · No | 0.500 | 0.945 | $15.12 | +$7.12 |
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · No | 0.909 | 0.964 | $13.50 | +$0.77 |
| Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.165 | $3.46 | +$0.10 |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.283 | 0.128 | $2.05 | −$2.49 |
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.065 | $1.82 | −$0.98 |
| U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? · Yes | 0.481 | 0.115 | $1.61 | −$5.13 |
| Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.095 | $0.57 | −$0.99 |
| Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? · Yes | 0.108 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.80 |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? · Yes | 0.081 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.21at 0.310Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?
- +$2.14at 0.710Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
- +$1.00at 0.300Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
- +$0.75at 0.052Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
- +$0.32at 0.830Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-16 06:32 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $7.20 |
| 07-07 03:55 | Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.08 |
| 07-04 19:07 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $2.80 |
| 06-20 23:35 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.91 | $4.55 |
| 06-18 07:26 | Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $4.15 |
| 06-17 18:06 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.571 | $3.43 |
| 06-15 11:05 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $4.50 |
| 05-20 14:54 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.18 | $1.08 |
| 05-19 03:53 | China coup attempt before 2027? | BUY | 0.964 | $9.64 |
| 05-19 02:04 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.82 | $7.38 |
| 04-27 23:54 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.909 | $18.18 |
| 04-27 23:53 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $4.98 |
| 04-25 21:54 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.447 | $2.23 |
| 04-23 20:50 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.459 | $2.75 |
| 04-23 20:50 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.551 | $3.86 |